Analysis of China's machine tool market and indust

Analysis of China's machine tool market and industrial operation in 2016

Abstract: macro factors will have a corresponding impact on China's machine tool market, such as the continued downturn in the demand of traditional users and the gradual implementation of de capacity; The requirements for machine tools will be further upgraded due to new demands in emerging and traditional fields; The external competition brought by import and the trade friction caused by export will show an increasing trend at the same time; The operation of enterprises is further differentiated. With the clearing of the market, some enterprises are facing the situation of withdrawal

2016 is the first year of the 13th five year plan. In order to adapt to the new normal of China's economy and deal with the problems and difficulties in economic development, the Chinese government adopts the development idea of taking the supply side structural reform as the main line, and puts forward the key task of the supply side structural reform of "three deletions, one reduction and one compensation" according to the current characteristics and reality of China's economy. In the coming period, reform will be the main line and stability the bottom line, which may become the main theme of China's economic operation

in 2016, under the combined effect of stable growth policies, especially the prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy, the designated friction coefficient of real estate, automobile and service industry must undergo repeated experiments. The operation of services and new forms of scientific and technological consumption showed explosive growth, driving the gradual stabilization of economic operation. Affected by this, China's machine tool market and industry also showed the first stabilization in six consecutive years (since 2011). The following is a comprehensive analysis of the recent operation status and trends of China's machine tool market and industry according to the information and data of the National Bureau of statistics, the customs and the industry statistical key contacts of the association

first, the market and industrial operation have stabilized in the short term

1. The overall market of machine tools has stabilized

the total consumption of machine tools in China was about US $27.5 billion in 2016, unchanged year-on-year. Among them, the consumption of metal cutting machine tools was about US $16.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; The consumption of metal forming machine tools was about 11.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. In 2016, China's total tool consumption was about US $4billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. Compared with the growth rate of the above indicators in the same period of 2015, it rebounded by 13.5, 10.3, 19.0 and 1.0 percentage points respectively. Therefore, in 2016, China's machine tool consumption market showed signs of stabilization

2. The machine tool industry rebounded slightly

the total output of China's machine tool industry in 2016 was about US $22.9 billion, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools was about US $12.2 billion, unchanged year-on-year; The output of metal forming machine tools was about US $10.7 billion, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. The output of machine tools was about 810000, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools was about 610000, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%; The output of metal forming machine tools was about 200000, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In 2016, China's tool output was about US $5.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. Compared with the growth rate of the above indicators in the same period of 2015, it rose by 13.0, 9.0, 18.1, 11.7, 11.3, 11.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively. Therefore, China's machine tool industry showed a slight rebound in 2016

3. The foreign trade activity of machine tool commodities decreased significantly

the total import and export volume of machine tool commodities in 2016 was about US $23.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. Among them, exports amounted to US $10.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; Imports amounted to US $12.97 billion, down 11.7% year-on-year; The trade deficit was US $2.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%

(1) export: it continues to show a downward trend

20 in order to speed up the cultivation and development of the new material industry, the export dependence of China's machine tools and tools in 16 years was 12.7% and 51.0% respectively, which changed by -1.8 and 4.6 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2015

the total export volume of China's machine tools in 2016 was about US $2.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the export of metal cutting machine tools was about US $1.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%; The export of metal forming machine tools was about US $1billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. In the static load test in 2016, only enough tension is needed to break the test piece, and the total export of China's tools was about US $2.6 billion, unchanged year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate of the above indicators in the same period of 2015, it has changed by -3.5, -2.0, -6.4 and 7.1 percentage points respectively. Although the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the measures to stabilize exports in 2016 have played a certain role in promoting exports, the decline in exports reflects the recent downturn and sluggish operation of the international economy and major international consumer markets

(2) import: it is still significantly declining

in 2016, China's import dependence on machine tools and tools was 27.3% and 37.5% respectively, with changes of -2.7 and 4.2 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2015

in 2016, China's total machine tool imports were about US $7.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%. Among them, the import of metal cutting machine tools was about US $6.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; The import of metal forming machine tools was about US $1.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%. In 2016, China's total tool imports were about US $1.5 billion, flat year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate of the above indicators in the same period of 2015, it rebounded by 7.6, 7.9, 3.7 and 6.8 percentage points respectively. As most of the imported goods of machine tools and tools are medium and high-end machine tool hosts, cutting tools and core functional components of machine tools, the continuous and significant decline in imports reflects that the consumption market of machine tools and tools is still in the process of power transformation, lacking long-term stable demand support

through in-depth analysis of the main economic indicators of China's machine tool market and industrial operation in 2016, it is not difficult to find that the stabilization of the food grade calcium carbonate Market and the industrial recovery in 2016 were mainly driven by domestic demand, and exports to the international market and imports reflecting foreign investment activities are still poor. While domestic demand is mainly driven by government investment (with a growth rate of 8.1%), the growth rate of private investment in 2016 was only 3.2% (once dropped to 2.1% in the middle of the year), a decrease of 6.9 percentage points over 2015. Therefore, it is necessary to make a calm judgment on the stabilization of the machine tool market and industrial operation in 2016, and pay more attention to and in-depth analysis of the potential problems and risks appearing in the operation

second, the pressure of market and industrial operation remains

1. Low demand: traditional users have excess capacity, and the conversion of old and new kinetic energy lags behind.

based on the analysis of the output data of 91 major products of China's industry from 2000 to 2015, considering their impact on the consumption of machine tools, the consumption demand index of China's machine tools and tools is obtained by weighted aggregation and classification. It can be seen from the index that in the past 15 years, the demand for metal processing machine tools has shown a unilateral downward state after the peak in 2010. Although it rebounded in a short term in 2013, the overall trend still shows a downward trend; The demand for cutting tools showed a trend of rapid growth before 2011, and showed a state of top operation after 2011, and began to show a downward trend in 2014

due to the comprehensive influence of money supply and supply-demand relationship on machine tool consumption, after more than 10 years of rapid growth in the field of machine tool products, there are a large number of machine tools in the traditional user field and the machine tools are in service for a short time. In the general environment of overcapacity of traditional users and the shift of money supply from positive to neutral, the consumption demand for machine tools will show the possibility of continuous downward pressure

the consumption demand of cutting tools is in direct proportion to the operating rate of users. With the industrial transformation and upgrading of users and the improvement of production efficiency brought by the application of new technologies, the consumption level (performance or unit price) of cutting tools will continue to increase, and the consumption scale (quantity or total amount) will decline

2. The operation quality has declined, and the operation risk has not been resolved.

according to the relevant data of the National Bureau of statistics, the profit margin of the main business of metal processing machine tools in 2016 was about 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared with 2011. The profit margin of the main business of the tool is about 7.5%, unchanged from 2011. In 2016, the inventory of finished products in the metal processing machine tool and tool industry increased by 162.2% and 24.4% respectively compared with 2011. In 2016, the accounts receivable of the metal processing machine tool and tool industry increased by 64.3% and 71.7% respectively compared with 2011

according to the situation reflected by the industry statistical key contact network data of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the downward trend of operation quality is more obvious. In 2016, the growth rate and profit margin of the main business income of metal processing machine tools were -3.4% and -0.6% respectively, down 18.3 and 6.5 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2011. In 2016, the growth rate and profit margin of the main business income of tools were -2.4% and 5.4% respectively, down 21.3 and 2.4 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2011

according to the recently released macroeconomic policies and measures, in 2017, we will continue to promote the supply side structural reform and strengthen the implementation of the key tasks of "three deletions, one reduction and one subsidy"; Maintain a prudent monetary policy, but it will be neutral and tight, and the growth of money supply will slow down; International environmental uncertainties are increasing, and the foreign trade environment is tightening; The RMB is still under great depreciation pressure, and the outflow pressure of foreign exchange reserves is increasing; Deepen the reform of statistical management system and strive to improve the authenticity of statistical data, etc. The above macro factors will have a corresponding impact on China's machine tool market. For example, the demand of traditional user areas continues to be depressed, and the capacity reduction will be gradually implemented; The requirements for machine tools will be further upgraded due to new demands in emerging and traditional fields; The external competition brought by import and the trade friction caused by export will show an increasing trend at the same time; The operation of enterprises is further differentiated. With the clearing of the market, some enterprises are facing the situation of withdrawal

based on the above factors, China's machine tool consumption market and industry will maintain a low-level trend in 2017, and there is the possibility of repeatedly challenging the bottom