The hottest crude oil pulse slow ox or runaway wil

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Crude oil pulse slow bull or runaway wild horse

from the impact of previous emergencies in the Middle East on crude oil prices, the trend of crude oil shows a certain regularity. Before the outbreak of each conflict, the crude oil price will rise first. The more tense the situation is and the greater the impact on crude oil supply, the stronger the stimulation on crude oil prices. Once the situation becomes calm and has little impact on crude oil supply, the oil price will fall sharply in advance. So, will this geopolitical crisis affect crude oil in this way

two years after the large-scale Israeli Palestinian conflict in the Middle East in 2009, large-scale riots broke out again in the Middle East, and international crude oil soared again in the turmoil. The Middle East is a common name used by western countries to refer to Eastern countries close to Europe, such as Egypt in West Asia and North Africa. It contains about 70% of the world's oil. Oil has not only brought wealth to the Middle East, but also brought lingering historical disasters. In the more than 60 years since the Second World War, there have been eight large-scale local wars in the Middle East, namely five Arab Israeli wars, one Iran Iraq war, one Gulf War and one Iraq war. As long as mankind is still in the era of oil as the main energy, oil has always been the unavoidable "theme" of the Middle East war. Reviewing the trend of crude oil futures prices during the previous Middle East wars is of great help to help us judge the current trend of commodity futures prices, including crude oil

during the first Middle East War, the strategic position of crude oil was far less than that at present, but the war still had a great impact on crude oil. At that time, the world crude oil price was around us $2.77/barrel. For more than a year, the international crude oil price rose rapidly during the war, with an increase of about 6%. After the war, the growth rate of crude oil price slowed down

the second Middle East War was the Suez Canal War. Britain and France wanted to recapture the Suez Canal, which was nationalized by Egypt, as an important strategic oil channel. Because most of the Gulf oil that their economy relies heavily on is transported through the Suez Canal, otherwise they must bypass the horn of good hope in Africa. At that time, nearly half of the world's oil tankers had to pass through the Suez Canal. During the war, Arab countries provided support to Egypt by cutting off oil pipelines to Europe, which plunged Europe into a serious "oil shortage". Although the second Middle East War did not last long, the world crude oil price fluctuated violently during the war. Generally speaking, it also showed the characteristics of rapid rise first and then gentle rise. Since then, major oil producing countries initiated the establishment of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad, Iraq, to use oil as a weapon against Europe

the third Middle East war is also called the sixth five year war. Arab countries once again used oil as a weapon. Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries announced an oil embargo against the United States. However, due to the weak intensity of the war, the role of the oil embargo is limited, but the crude oil price still shows the characteristics of first rising and then falling

during the fourth Middle East War, Arab countries used "Oil Weapons" again, which led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. The five month long oil embargo triggered the first global oil crisis. The war doubled the price of international crude oil from less than US $5 per barrel to over US $10 per barrel, and the price of crude oil continued to rise slightly after the war

the Fifth Middle East War, namely the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, has little impact on the international crude oil price due to the low intensity and short time of the war. As mentioned earlier, the stability of the three closed-loop models is not related to the samples

the Iran Iraq war lasted for eight years. The war between the two oil producing countries caused turbulence and tight supply in the world oil market. The global oil production dropped sharply from 5.8 million barrels per day to less than 1million barrels per day, and the crude oil price soared from $14 per barrel before 1979 to around $37 in 1980, leading to the second oil crisis

during the Gulf War in 1990, the supply of crude oil in Iraq was interrupted, and the oil facilities of the two countries were severely damaged, which made the international oil price soar from $16 per barrel to around $41 per barrel. The third one was the additional strain caused by the change of the sensitive gate resistance of the strain gauge caused by the change of temperature; The second oil crisis. Compared with the previous two crises, the high oil price did not last long. As the International Energy Agency launched an emergency plan to put 2.5 million barrels of reserved crude oil on the market every day, OPEC led by Saudi Arabia also rapidly increased its production, which soon stabilized the world oil price. After october1990, the oil price began to fall sharply, and fell to about $18 per barrel in february1991. Since then, the crude oil price has gradually stabilized and fluctuated slightly around $20

on the eve of the outbreak of the Iraq war in 2003, the international crude oil price was near a historical high. The market generally believed that the war would be decided quickly and would not cause a shortage of world oil supply. At the same time, the United States said that it would put in strategic oil reserves when necessary, and OPEC also indicated that it would temporarily use its surplus capacity to ensure market supply. The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the outbreak of the war failed to stop its decline

at the beginning of 2009, a large-scale Israeli Palestinian conflict broke out in the Middle East, and NYMEX crude oil futures prices soared from $35 a barrel to around $50, which led to a sharp rise in commodity futures prices, including metal copper, rubber, grease, etc. However, the conflict did not have a substantial impact on the crude oil supply soon after, and the crude oil price fell back to around us $33 per barrel

from the impact of the above-mentioned emergencies in the Middle East on the crude oil price, it shows a certain regularity. Before the outbreak of each conflict, the crude oil price will take the lead to rise. The greater the intensity of war and the greater the impact on the crude oil supply, the stronger the stimulation on the crude oil price. However, once the outcome of the war has been decided and the impact on crude oil supply is small, the oil price will fall sharply ahead of schedule. Judging from the current international geopolitical pattern, the possibility of Arab countries jointly taking extreme measures such as oil embargo is extremely low. It is difficult for "Oil Weapons" to pose a substantial threat to the international crude oil market again

the short-term surge in international crude oil prices is mainly affected by the escalation of violent conflict in Libya. The market is worried that the conflict will lead to the reduction or even complete interruption of crude oil supply in the country, and further spread to other members of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As an OPEC member country, oil is the economic lifeline and main pillar of Libya. The country's proven oil reserves reached 44.27 billion barrels in 2010 and showed a steady growth trend. More than 80% of its oil production was exported, most of which were exported to European countries such as Italy, Germany, Spain and France. Libya's oil output is about 1.789 million barrels per day. At present, the unrest has led to a local oil company shutting down its output of about 100000 barrels per day, and other oil companies are evacuating their employees. The possibility of interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East and North Africa has greatly increased, and the uncertainty of global crude oil supply has increased. Any news of supply interruption will support the continued rise of oil prices. However, it is unlikely that global conflicts will lead to a crisis in global crude oil supply

at present, the global crude oil inventory is abundant, and the major economies have established effective strategic reserve mechanisms. We believe that the impact of this conflict on the world crude oil price is short-lived. We should always check the fastening of the following positions: after the crude oil price soars to around $98 a barrel, there will be considerable resistance. It is expected that the situation in the Middle East will gradually subside and the oil price will return to stability. Looking back at the trend of international crude oil prices over the past 24 years, the price rise often started before the arrival of the summer driving peak in the United States in March. After the Spring Festival this year, the crude oil price continued to fall back by a large margin. The surge for two consecutive trading days caused by supply concerns can be seen as the beginning of the seasonal rising market. The increase in demand after the end of the conflict will become the main force driving the oil price upward, The baptism target of NYMEX crude oil rising in the first half of last month in the hands of producers is above $110 per barrel

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