The hottest crude oil starts to stabilize PTA at l

2022-08-06
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PTA was supported by the low crude oil price.

I. market review

1. External market: as the strength of the U.S. dollar after the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee suppressed the market, offsetting the impact of positive economic data, the New York stock market rose and fell on the 16th, and the three major stock indexes rose and fell at the close. The failure situation of the U.S. crude oil futures price was to change the fracture pattern, and it rose sharply on Wednesday, Earlier, the government's crude oil inventory report showed that crude oil and distillate oil inventories decreased more than expected last week. The US Energy Information Association (EIA) announced that the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.7 million barrels to 332.4 million barrels a week, with an estimated decrease of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventory increased by 900000 barrels to 217.2 million barrels a week, with an estimated increase of 1.3 million barrels. The weekly distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.9 million barrels to 164.4 million barrels, with an estimated decrease of 600000 barrels

2. Internal market: the overnight external market crude oil rebounded against the US dollar, but did not bring too many surprises to the domestic PTA market. The main PTA contract was calm and flat, but then it was supported by the overall long confidence of the domestic futures market. The price rose with the trend, and fluctuated sharply in the afternoon. At the end of the day, it barely closed above the full day average. The final main contract ta1003 closed at 8034 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton. There were 23772 transactions and 16016 positions

II. Industry analysis

the spot market price in East China rose from 7500 yuan/ton in the previous week, which complemented the flyme color collection system, to 7680 yuan/ton on Thursday, an increase of 180 yuan; Although the futures price continued to rise on Friday, the spot price fell slightly, and finally closed at 7650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan in a week. The price of the Asian external market also rose from $907/T in the previous week to $920/T on Wednesday, up $13. The price remained stable from Wednesday to Friday, and did not rise with the futures price, but remained at $920/T

the price of semi gloss polyester chip fell by 50 yuan to 9500 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 200 yuan to 18900 yuan/ton, polyester POY increased by 100 yuan to 11000 yuan/ton, polyester DTY remained at 12400 yuan/ton, and polyester staple fiber fell by 200 yuan to 9950 yuan/ton. On Monday, some polyester prices continued to fall. Polyester POY fell by 100 yuan to 10900 yuan/ton, and polyester staple fiber fell by 70 yuan to 9880 yuan/ton

according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, all 39 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in October, of which the textile industry increased by 11.1% year-on-year, and the brand awareness of the total retail sales of social consumer goods further increased by 1171.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year. From the textile export data, the year-on-year growth rate of textile export in October was -4.79%, showing a gradual warming trend

III. technical analysis

from the technical point of view, the main 1003 contracts of PTA futures fluctuated around the 20 day moving average and the 40 day moving average. Recently, bulls have repeatedly performed in intraday trading. At the same time, prices have risen slightly. In the short term, they are close to the 8070 central line of the interval. At present, Bulls' rhythm tends to be cautious and there is a certain pressure. Short term shocks are expected to remain the mainstream. The lower support is located at 7830

IV. comprehensive research and judgment

crude oil is a variety that performs normally under the rebound of the US dollar. At the same time, it is also a variety that hides its strength and bides its time under the pressure of the US dollar. The market sentiment is generally optimistic about the price of crude oil, so the desire of short sellers is not strong, and there is limited room for exploration. In the domestic market, the correlation between chemical products and crude oil prices has been greatly weakened recently, so even if the crude oil rebounds, it cannot guarantee that the chemical products will strengthen. However, chemical products are supported by the cost of crude oil, and the crude oil will strengthen. At least, there is little room for its weakness, so chemical products should not be sold out too soon

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