The hottest Thailand gives a negative hint of cutt

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Thailand gave a negative hint of cutting rubber production

Shanghai natural rubber futures contract rose 2.12% in early trading on January 10. The European Central Bank injected liquidity into the capital market, temporarily easing investors' concerns. Excessive rainfall in Hainan rubber (8.61,0.01,0.12%) producing areas and Thailand's reduction in rubber production also helped prices rebound. However, the sovereign rating downgrades of Italy and Spain may bring new panic. The pessimistic economic outlook will seriously affect rubber demand. The reduction of production in Thailand also suggests that the demand recession is faster than expected, and the market is still full of risks

On the 7th, the November crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile futures exchange closed up $0.39, or 0.47%, at $82.98 a barrel. The US nonfarm payrolls increased by 103000 in September, boosting optimism, but the data, including 45000 strike workers returning to work, limited the positive impact of the data. Excluding these data, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 58000, lower than the market's original estimate of an increase of 60000. Moreover, Moody's cut the credit rating of Italy and Spain, dragging the euro down against the US dollar, reducing risk interest, the US dollar index rose, and the crude oil market rose. The rise of crude oil will increase the cost of synthetic rubber, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market

weather conditions, natural rubber production area in Thailand, cloudy in central and northern Thailand, rainy in the South; Malaysia production area, the southern part of the Malay Peninsula is cloudy, and the northern part of Kalimantan island is cloudy; In Indonesia, there is rain in the north of the equator of Sumatra island, rain in the south of the equator of Sumatra island, and cloudy in the south of Kalimantan island; China's production area, Hainan showers, Yunnan is cloudy. Rainfall in Hainan may continue until the 12th. Hainan rubber production was seriously affected by typhoon weather

in the Asian spot market, prices rose the previous trading day. Market trading slowed down, and traders hoped that China would return to the market after a week-long holiday. An exporter from Thailand said that the market purchase volume would increase. The RSS3 of Thailand 3 cigarette glue shipped in November/December reported 420 US dollars per kilogram. The machine adopts advanced DSCC ⑴ full digital closed-loop control system for control and measurement. On October 10, the official FOB quotation of Malaysian standard glue SMR20 in October rose sharply in the morning

in other respects, senior officials of the Thai government said that the country plans to cut its annual rubber supply by 120000 tons to support prices and encourage farmers to cut down and replant 64000 hectares. The Minister of Agriculture said that seeking to cooperate with Indonesia and Malaysia to take the same action, the reduction in supply and the replanting plan should prevent Thailand's benchmark RSS3 grade rubber from falling below $4.0 per kilogram this year. The government will pay 16000 baht (512 US dollars) per 0.16 hectares to farmers, higher than the current 11000 baht, to encourage them to cut down aging rubber trees. Thailand's plan to cut production again has boosted market confidence in the short term, but it suggests that the weakness of rubber demand may be detrimental in the long term

on the whole, the commodity market is facing great pressure. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England should carefully read the instruction manual before using it to stabilize the liquidity of the capital market, which has temporarily played a role in curbing the spread of risk. However, with the downgrade of the sovereign ratings of Italy and Spain, panic may come unexpectedly. Any new adverse economic data may imply a pessimistic outlook. Moreover, there are doubts about the rescue of Greece, and the outlook is very pessimistic. The people's Bank of China once again said that the primary importance of stabilizing prices is that there is no obvious sign that China may loosen its monetary policy. The prospect of commodity demand is not optimistic, and the situation is that fake and shoddy products are rampant, which is detrimental to the rubber market. Investors bought some contracts supported by the recent excessive rainfall in Hainan and the favorable reduction of production in Thailand, but the weak demand may lead to more selling. The reduction of production in Thailand also shows the weakness of the spot market. Chinese traders replenished their inventories before the holiday. In recent months, they have been quite cautious and are unlikely to turn into active buyers quickly. There are great risks in the rubber market

note: all reprinted contents are rdquo; He Guoliang said that indicating the source and reprinting are for the purpose of transmitting more information, which does not mean agreeing with his views or confirming the authenticity of his content

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